Thursday, December 11, 2008

Half-Formed Thought of the Day: Compensation by Stocks

Executives are compensated in part with stocks in their own companies, and expected not to sell the stocks. This compensation scheme makes sense insofar as executives become personally invested in the success of their companies, and to the extent that their compensation (i.e., the value of the stock) is linked to their performance (which makes the value of the stock go up).

This form of compensation, common-sense though it may be, runs against another piece of common sense about stocks: the older you get, the less you should hold in stocks, and the more you should hold in cash or bonds. Stocks are volatile in the short-term, but have the biggest gains in the long-term. They are the ideal investment for young people, but the older you get (and the closer you are to needing to liquidate your investments), the more you should move your savings in stocks into bond or cash form. But executives are usually old. Many a CEO is 50, 60, or 70, and is employed in what may be his last job of his career. He should be moving his investments into bonds, but the majority of his compensation he is making at that time (which is also a great portion of his lifetime earnings) may come in the form of stocks that he is expected not to liquidate.

Even if the performance of a company were purely attributable to the performance of its executives (which is hardly true), compensating in large part by stocks (or otherwise forcing executives to hold them) can create false incentives. First, in the case of older executives, the volatility of stocks is all the more present; this actually dilutes the value of the stock - CEOs won't consider the stock as valuable, and hence (for example) they will generally seek (and obtain) more compensation. As with any inefficiency, it's a loss for both sides.

Secondly, executives whose main wealth is in the form of stock could be expected to be pressured, by the volatile nature of their own savings, to act rashly to protect the market value of their companies in the short-term, rather than building sustained growth. The short horizon of the stock market is already a problem in motivating executives so this effect would be most unwelcome!

Pay-for-performance is still ideal in my opinion - but maybe more of the delayed and/or conditional compensation should take the form of cash.

Friday, December 5, 2008

Upcoming: Chicago, Philly, New York

I'll be in Chicago in late December and then Philly. Then I'll be in
NYC twice briefly in January. If you're going to be around drop me a
line...

(a pretty prosaic way to break my blogging silence but I do have some
updates coming.)

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

"THE Failure of free markets" = complete nonsense

Asking whether the current market crisis proves THE failure of free
markets is akin to asking whether the fall of ancient Greece proved
THE failure of democracy. (It didn't; there have been some decent
democracies since then.)

The error stems from a poorly phrased question. At most, this crisis
proves one failure of free markets, or maybe the complete failure of
one free market. Not all free markets are the same, just like all
democracies aren't. After all, our democracy doesn't decide whether
to go to war by popular vote, as the first democracy did :-).

Who knows anything, anyway

I have a few longer posts in draft form on the way, including one on
the recent events in the market.

What stirkes me most about the recent market turmoil is the degree to
which it was not foreseen and is still not understood. It is a simple
enough fact, but still pretty staggering. A decade that has now had a
few major crises on American soil (9/11, Katrina, this) that caught us
off guard would hint that our ignorance will be a theme of the 21st
century.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Get a preview of the Linkspank Firefox extension

This week the Linkspank Firefox extension will be available for
testing. Here's what you should know:

1. If you're not using Firefox, you should. It is the best way to
access the web in terms of speed, security, and sweet features.

2. The Linkspank extension is a one-click installation that will
change your life. It will help you find articles and videos you would
have missed, save and share them faster than you thought possible.

3. The extension is private and won't break your Firefox. Our protoype
of the extension was tested for months so this will be safe.

4. It works well even for uncluttered browsers. The extension adds a
toolbar to your Firefox window, but you can hide it and still use the
functionality of the extension using shortcut keys.

If you'd like to be among the first to try it, contact me at
www.linkspank.com/contact. All are welcome (there is no level
requirement).

Monday, September 15, 2008

Creating toolbar to help you if you're a tool

I have a couple big posts to do. One to answer the Faq "how is Linkspank doing," another to answer the Faq "how are you doing," and the third to answer the Faq, "why did you invite me to facebook?"

For now I'll just note that today I worked on the new version of the linkspank toolbar for Firefox. The previous toolbar was well received by testers and a version for the latest edition of Firefox has been requested. It will be useful even to people (like me!) who prize screen space and are wary of anything that might take up that space.

And if you don't know what a toolbar is, well this toolbar will be cool enough for you to learn. But in short summary, it will provide you with the magic of Linkspank wherever you go on the web, and will allow you to save and share web pages with one click. And, if you're not a Firefox user, you should be, because despite other options it's still the best way to browse the web.

If you're a firefox user and you want to experience the toolbar glory early, just let me know.

PS the Cowboys suck.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Building the New Google

Soon I will write about the Facebook invitation bonanza that you may have noticed, but today I'll just drop a note about a current project.

Linkspank Version 2, coming in a couple weeks, will feature a "New Google."  How's that for a bold promise?  It's called the "New Google" for two reasons.  First, it's not Google, so if it's any form of a Google it's a new Google.  But there is a second and better reason to call it a Google, which is that it is going to be a Google (search engine) for "new" stuff.  

We are testing the search engine and it's already totally sweet.  It does something that is really obvious and needed, but for some reason no one is providing it right now.  Hence I'm predicting you'll be all over it.  To prove me right or wrong, stay tuned to this blog.  And get prepared to pump it up to your friends and stalkers when it comes out.

In the meantime... see you on Facebook :-).

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Check out my Facebook profile

facebook
Andrew Mitchell
Andrew Mitchell has:
572 friends
11 photos
73 notes
72 wall posts
31 groups

Check out my Facebook profile


Hi Inside,

I set up a Facebook profile where I can post my pictures, videos and events and I want to add you as a friend so you can see it. First, you need to join Facebook! Once you join, you can also create your own profile.

Thanks,
Andrew

Here's the link:
http://www.facebook.com/p.php?i=657320649&k=YZD2Y4SXW35M5FMAP1V4UP&r&v=2
This e-mail may contain promotional materials. If you do not wish to receive future commercial mailings from Facebook, please opt out. Facebook's offices are located at 156 University Ave., Palo Alto, CA 94301.

Monday, September 8, 2008

oops! Linkspank is down.

Should be back online in the next 2-5 hours.

Sorry for the inconvenience!  

Coming this Week: Winner of the iPhone/ iPod Touch

The winner of the contest for the iPhone or iPod Touch has been determined and will be announced this week.   The result was delayed a bit massively by my staycation + vacation in August but I'll work on getting the Appledom into the hands of the new Spankmaster as quickly as possible.  



Personally, my Blackberry Curve + iPod Touch combo has been working pretty well for me.  The Curve has actually given me a couple little problems (trouble with my Blackberry account; some crashing as well, due possibly I think to my Google talk application on it) but I'm retaining hope that it will be the perfect device with an improvement or two on my part.  

I will affirm strongly that, if you're often in the presence of wi-fi, the iPod Touch is a sweet sweet thing to have, especially if you don't have iPhone.  I have some beefs with iTunes and Apple, but the iPod Touch is SO great at lots of stuff (as is the iPhone!).  If you haven't checked out Pandora for the iPhone or Touch, you really oughta do that.  A little investment in Pandora goes a long way and I will heap praise on Pandora in an upcoming post.  

Friday, September 5, 2008

All our great problems are unsolved

The world around us tries to convince us that the great problems have
been solved, that the Internet or your field of science or business is
coming to a state of maturity. People state and imply that there isn't
much more to be done...or that what's left to be done is merely the
extension of what we've already achieved (e.g., bringing the web to
mobile devices).

Don't fall for this idea. It's wrong. Thomas Kuhn, the coiner of
"paradigm shift", eloquently explains to us just how difficult it is
to think outside the narrow tracks of cotemporary research and
development.

For Internet, the classic mantra is that search is "done". Maybe it
is, in a way. But people said that pre-Google and I can think of some
big shortcomings with what the Google homepage gives us, brilliant
though it is.

For one thing, searching only works if you can state what you are
looking for. Sometimes you don't know how to state it, and sometimes
it just can't be stated easily (e.g., when you're browsing).

Linkspank Version 2 will present more than one new twist on searching
and browsing. So I'm psyched about that.

So there you have it: a little plug to stay thirsty for version 2, and
a little reminder about pushing the edge of the paradigms.

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Chrome (by Google) is the Usain Bolt of Browsers

With Chrome, you can find cool crap on Linkspank faster than ever before

When I heard about Google Chrome coming out as an alternative to browsing the web with Firefox or Internet Explorer (among others), I wasn't too interested at first.  I just saw the browser's appearance as part of the big G's strategy to provide everything online that you are formerly used to installing on your computer (e.g., Microsoft Office).

But I heard that Chrome was really fast, so I downloaded it.  BY GOD this browser is fast.  It's also nice to see that Linkspank works well in it.  I'm personally quite excited.

From a Linkspank perspective, Chrome underscores the mighty power of Google.  I often look at Linkspank's so-called competitors and I'm stunned by just how little they achieve.   What have all those big teams doing for all these years (quite a few years, for some of them)?  Google, on the other hand, can come in and change the game quickly.  For Linkspank, it means that we have to use our smallness as an advantage, which is an ongoing consideration in the strategy.








Tuesday, September 2, 2008

The Punchcard Method

When the subject of exercise comes up in conversation, I usually share my love for what I call the "punchcard method."

In the work environment, "punching the timecard" has become a synonym for doing little more than showing up. But I've found that approach to be helpful for staying in shape.

Here are my rules for myself: it doesn't matter how hard I exercise, how long I exercise, or what I do. The only rule is that I try to do *something* on a regular basis. Sometimes it's just a few pushups or a headstand or a ten-minute job.

This method has worked well for me for years. I wouldn't dare attribute all my luck at exercise to this method (I think in fitness as elsewhere people greatly underweight the importance of the cards they are dealt). But it's worked well enough that I ask myself if I can copy the success elsewhere.

Maybe the method is most appropriate for cases in which you have a plan, or at least a shred of a plan. Punching the card on a doomed startup idea probably won't go anywhere. On the other hand, punching the card on that basic idea or that area of passion may get somewhere eventually. Hmm...now it sounds like nothing more than a tale of persistance. Maybe it boils down to the division between planning and execution.

FIN.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Darkspank Preview

Here's a flavor of Darkspank, one of the upcoming skins for Linkspank:


As mentioned earlier, there will be other skins too, for those of us who don't want a dark, brooding spank experience.

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Linkspank TV continues

It's been a while since the last episode of Linkspank TV. After
piloting slightly different concepts, we got feedback that people
liked it, but it didn't need to be so "produced" and it would be
better if it happened more.

So today we're embarking on a new Linkspank TV format: more casual,
more often. Today I'll be shooting with Bice so stay tuned.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Designing skins

One feature coming in version 2 of linkspank is the ability to earn
different "skins" (including color schemes and background images).
You'll get a wider choice of skins as your Level increases through
diligent spanking of your email and Facebook contacts.

In the future I'd like to have skins by graphic designers; maybe there
will be a contest for skin design. But to start things off I'm doing
a couple myself.

1) Darkspank, with a black background and light text. That one is about done.

2) Macspank, which will appear more like the Apple computer
environment. Not sure if I can pull this off.

3) Babespank. Your screen is adorned with babes.

4) Baconspank. Featuring bacon graphics.

5) Zen temple. I'm envisioning a Japanese Buddhist temple in a
mountain forest; may be difficult for me.

6) The cubicle. Your screen resembles a cubicle setting.

Some or all of them may have dynamic components. For example, the
temple may change lighting from morning to night; the cubicle may get
new post-it's throughout the day.

Look for it in Version 2. If you have skin requests fire away. If
you're interested in designing skins just holler and/or stay tuned.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Feature requests welcome for Version 2

Linkspank Version 2 is in production. It will feature:

1) new appearance and navigation, with "skins"
2) a fuller set of Google tools
3) a new toolbar for Firefox 3
4) a search function which you can find NO WHERE ELSE and which is HUGELY SEXY
5) a new way of browsing and getting content based on what you like.

If you have suggestions or requests, smack that "contact me" link at the right.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Spreading yourself thin

Business school convinced me that "strategy" means a lot more than
"having a plan." It is making decisions about trade-offs. You can't
attack all parts of the chess board or Risk board at the same time.
Your product can't be everything to everyone. You can't specialize in
everything.

Nevertheless, I think people apply strategy too strongly in their
personal lives. They think that their interests and pursuits should be
obviously consistent with each other.

But in personal life, strategy is a mere vehicle for the blood and
fuel of what we do: our passion, wherever it comes from. Strategy is
your tack on a sailboat, and passion is the wind. The wind is the
indispensible part.

This aphoristic stuff has been in my head because I've been writing a
book this summer. I'm about half done. I don't think any VC would have
counseled me to write a sci-fi book as a constructive move for
Linkspank. I think it has been good for a periodic stoking of my
passion about my startup, though. And fun.


--
Sent from Gmail for mobile | mobile.google.com

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Some Smack Talk

This fall, Linkspank will do for web browsing what Pandora has done for music.

Minus the digital-rights issues.

Web Navigation

Navigation: the artful balance between guiding a user's web experience and providing a set of alternatives.

If you are short on guidance, your user gets confused, or aborts the experience early due to lack of interest.

Even when you guide users, if you provide too many alternatives, they are also more likely to stray off the path you're guiding them down.

If you are short on alternatives, the user's experience is brittle. It ends whenever they refuse to follow your guidance or face some difficulty in doing so.

--
Sent from Gmail for mobile | mobile.google.com

Monday, August 25, 2008

The REAL Story Behind the "New Facebook"

If facebook sent you an announcement indicating that Applications were being deleted from the site, how would you feel?

Possibly, a mix of relief, indignation, and apprehension. Relief that your facebook experience wasn't going to be so chaotic anymore. Indignation that the efforts of all the little people out there to build apps were suddenly being shut down. And apprehension that, with apps gone, you might be missing out on something great.... something great that you could have used or played with if apps had been around.

Well, prepare to unleash those feelings. I am sorry to report that the "new facebook" has been introduced primarily to brush Applications under the carpet. Sure enough, applications are still a part of facebook. But they are a hidden part, one that facebook makes you work extra hard to find. And they are harder than ever to receive: all the work you do sending hatching eggs to your friends goes quite unnoticed now.

Consider this: what is so "new" about the new facebook? Here are some of the differences you may have noticed:

+ Some of the stuff that was on the left was moved to the right, and vice versa;
+ Some borders and shadings have been removed or added;
+ Stuff has been moved into "tabs"

These changes, especially the last one, make the site a lot "cleaner." Basically, a lot of junk that you were looking at before (i.e., applications) is back in the invisible tabs now. You click on them sometimes. Sometimes. Kinda like how you click on advertising sometimes :-).

What's in the front tab? It looks kinda like facebook used to look... before the whole applications thing got started.

There are three main ways to interact with facebook applications: through your own mini-feed; on the profile pages of other people; and via emails that you receive. The latter method of communication is restricted almost to the point of making all of the apps worthless. Now, the former two methods have also been hobbled.

There you have it. May the relief, indignation, and apprehension commence. Personally, I feel mostly relief. I liked a lot of the facebook apps, but the quality is "inconsistent" and it's part of a grand strategy of trying to be everything to everyone -- which, as it turns out, is the exact definition of not having a strategy. Of course, now that the apps have been shuffled away, it looks like maybe facebook did have a strategy: the apps were helpful, for a while. If you believe that, you may want to move your "indignation" slider a bit to the right. But maybe it would be wrong to credit them with that idea, since technology companies tend to be short on foresight. And now we are back to the basics of facebook, and the basics are a beautiful thing.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

5 Greatest Technology Failures of the Last Year


Here are the five greatest personal technology failures that I have experienced in the last year.

5. Google Calendar. I'm still using Google Calendar and I will continue to use it. But I put a text message reminder in the calendar to move my car, the reminder was not delivered to my phone on one occasion, and my car was towed. The text message alerts have worked well otherwise, but that was a big failure. I experienced other Google Calendar issues in the last year. I tried to manage multiple calendars and load public calendars, but it didn't always work so well. I evangelized Google Calendar to a friend to manage and publish a public calendar on her website using a widget, but the widget didn't always update properly and she couldn't change the light blue color inside it. Bummer.

Solution: I still use Google Calendar. It's a lightweight app, it has treated me well most of the time, and I know it's getting some investment and improvement.

4. HP All in One Printer. I love being able to print stuff, and especially to make copies and scan items, in the comfort of my home office. Hence I was extra sad when my HP Printer jammed up and I couldn't fix it. My attempts to fix it were half-hearted because I already hated the HP software on my computer. I wish the whole thing had worked better. Not that the case has been any different for the last ten years or so. Boo.

Solution: I don't have a printer any more.

3. Microsoft Word. Word 3.1, if I am remembering the version correctly, was the first piece of software that I fell in love with. It was fast, simple, and reliable. Microsoft Office 2007 is like a celebration of everything terrible that a piece of software can be. It's slow. It is fascist about a new file format with no obvious benefits to the format. And the menus make no sense. In an attempt to make menus based on pictures, the creators of the software have moved away from the tried-and-true fact of human psychology that we think in terms of nested lists.

Solution: use Google Docs, which has been working awesomely for me for a few months now. For now, it still seems to be necessary to have Word. But I don't use it much.

2. Nokia N95. I really liked this phone, and I've always been happy with Nokia. And maybe I pushed the envelope by buying an unlocked version before it was really ready here. Also, the phone did some great things for me. It gave me a mobile web browsing, good email connectivity, map usage, and a hulking 5 megapixel camera AND videocamera. But the software just really really sucked. It crashed and it was super slow. The camera was embarrassingly slow, for all the megapixels. It was something of a relief when it died.

Maybe the phone is better for some people. Maybe there are sweet phones in the N Series. But after this experience I realized that the primary criterion of a phone is reliability. So I got slightly reduced functionality, but maximum reliability, with a Blackberry. As a bonus, I've found that my Curve plays really well with Google Apps, which are the backbone of my productivity technology. Then I have an iPod Touch for bonus productivity and bonus play.

Solution: Now I'm using a Blackberry Curve and an iPod Touch.

1. Norton Anti-Virus by Symantec. For months, I was trying to figure out what was freezing up my computer and slowing it down. I lost a ton of productivity. Turned out the problem was due to Norton Anti-Virus. Norton, kiss my butt.

Solution: Now I'm using AVG Free. My speedy computer is speedy again. My computer works better and is faster now even when AVG is in the middle of a scan of my hard drive. Plus, as a nice bonus, AVG is free.


Saturday, August 23, 2008

Vacations

I'm on vacation. It's the first time that I've been 100% certain that
I've been on vacation in almost two years. I have a bizarre schedule
with lots of free time, but the week I'm in the middle of is the first
time in a while that I've set out to myself not to work. It's not so
much as a personal promise as a personal allowance.

A friend of mine recently had to fight his boss far in advance to get
a two-day vacation, and he was required to bring his work cell phone
and his work computer and be available during those two days. We had
an interesting chat about vacations. I posited that a vacation of
fewer than 7 days is worthless; a vacation of two lengths minimum is
necessary in order actually to relax and clear your mind; but a
vacation of longer than two weeks is dangerous, because you may not
return to work, unless you really like it. (Maybe the test of whether
you like your job is whether you can return to it after a vacation of
3-4 weeks. Management idea: counter the conventional wisdom of
encouraging your staff to take vacation in drips and drabs and instead
send them off on 3 week vacations.)

Reasons to go on vacation (each reason creates a different goal for
your vacation or type of vacation). They are in order of increasing
level of ambition for a vacation:
+ work in a relaxed environment
+ catch up on sleep
+ do anything but your job
+ spend time with people you love
+ have new experiences
+ have lots of fun
+ exist in a mental state that is free from work
+ purge your body and soul
+ achieve some form of enlightenment that is impossible in your daily life

I'm confused by people who appear to think that it's cool to be too
busy to go on vacation. It's certainly good to be vital to your
organization, but if you have authority you can set vacation time for
yourself; if you have competence you can set up the ship to run in
your absence; and if you are wise then wouldn't you want to spend some
time relaxing, thinking, getting perspective? Bill Gates and his
erstwhile trips into the woods are probably the best example of the
latter point.

The main reason I've gone so long without a vacation to date is that
I've been motivated not to go on vacation - I've kept working. But
this summer I ran out of gas on Linkspank and needed a vacation, and
strategically speaking it has been a sensible breaking point. (New
things coming in September, including an update on the site.)

I think vacations are good for Planning. Sometimes I think of humans
as having two work modes, Planning and Executing. Executing is like
jogging or walking - it's semi-involuntary. The more voluntary action
is required of jogging or walking, the more exhausting it becomes, to
a point of quickly becoming unfeasible. Such with execution: the
planning has to be laid out in advance. Good for vacations, when
you're relaxed, you can think, and you are reclining. :-)

Friday, June 20, 2008

Representativeness Bias in the Tech Industry

In business school Dick Thaler taught us about the representativeness bias, which could be crudely stated as the bias of over-weighting everything you're familiar with when making judgments, estimates and guesses about stuff. Dr. Thaler convinced me in class that we all fall prey to this bias far more often and with a greater deepness of error than we imagine, even after the bias has been explained to us.

Dick Thaler taught us about representativeness bias

For people in the tech industry, the representativeness bias can lead to (1) an over-estimation of the penetration of a product or service, either in awareness or usage, and, on the flip side, (2) an under-estimation of potential market sizes. As someone in the tech industry, you are a techie and you know lots of techies. Hence when all the techies you know start using a website, say Twitter, you overestimate how much people use Twitter or even know about Twitter. On the flip side, you underestimate how much Twitter has at stake to win by capturing the uncaptured market, or how badly some other service could thrash Twitter by grabbing the uncaptured market.

less of a big deal than people say
(though I wish them luck)

To stick with Twitter for a moment: how many people use Twitter? About a million. If they were all in America (which they aren't), they would number 1 American out of every 300. Hey, that doesn't sound like very much! How much of the remaining 299 out of 300 Americans do you think have heard of Twitter? Hint: *much* less than half! In other words, no one knows about this service, given that it's supposed to be something that any old person with a phone and friends can enjoy. Now, I like Twitter. But this is a service that is supposed to be as neat and as of general interest, as, say Facebook, which has 80 million users. If you needlessly chop a huge portion off that number to be "conservative," you have a potential market for a Twitter-like service of 50 million people. So, in user accounts, Twitter has penetrated 2% of its potential market. Basically, it's sucking big time. You'd be inclined to ask yourself if it's designed wrong, marketed wrong, or environmental factors are against it. Some conclusions: (1) Twitter is overhyped; (2) the idea of trying to build a better Twitter is undervalued. Now I don't mean to pick on Twitter exclusively. It's true for any site you like, to varying degrees. You can even say it about Facebook. Facebook's membership -- again even if you inflate it by counting everyone as an American -- compromises about a quarter of the country. That's a heck of a lot of people. But it's also outnumbered 3 to 1 by the non-Facebook users. For a site whose goal (according to me) is to be entertaining enough to compete with sitting around and watching television, it's a massive but still quite incomplete advance.

With a relentless focus on the mass market, Jobs avoids the representativeness bias of techiedom and can think big, score big

A great example to the contrary is the iPhone. As you may recall, Steve Jobs made some pretty bold sales forecasts for the iPhone before it was launched. If iPhone had been viewed in terms of the "smartphone" market, Jobs would have seemed crazy. But he was thinking correctly. You could say that the smartphone market was like Twitter - cool, but nowhere near the size it was supposed to be. He wanted to go for the real market, which was more of a Facebook type size (to continue the analogy). Of course, don't go saying that "everyone" knows about the iPhone now! ;-)

This logic inspired my foray into Linkspank. A tech insider may think of the competitive arena for link sharing, social news, or whatever you want to call it, as saturated. But the reality is quite the opposite. One of the biggest sites in this area - Digg - has only a few million users. Compared to the size of the market -- for really any person you likes YouTube, reads news on the web, or gets or receives email forwards is a potential user of such a site -- Digg is a little sniveling baby.

It IS true that the small minority of people who use Twitter, for example, may be different from the other 97-99% of Americans in some meaningful way... but I'll leave that point alone at this time.

Here's another, slightly more fun example. You know those "viral videos" on YouTube and elsewhere that "everyone" has seen? The all-time most viewed video on YouTube, the Evolution of Dance:



It has been viewed about 90 million times, which is say about 90 million people. By comparison, an estimated 140 million people view some part of the Super Bowl each year. So, while it's impressive, it still falls a bit behind the Superbowl Halftime Show (estimating, since that's not what the previous figure refers to). And that is the number 1 video - the number of views drops off VERY quickly as we go down the list. Still in the top ten is the "laughing baby video, which has a mere 50 million views:



It's pretty funny, and a lot of people have watched it, but unless you live on a special techie-only planet, you know more people who HAVEN'T seen this video than you know who HAVE seen it. Fewer than 1 in 6 Americans has seen it (once again, with my grotesque the-world-is-America math).

People like to talk about the magic of a technology that has enabled 50 million people (if views = people) to watch something filmed casually in someone's kitchen. And it is magical, I agree. But looking at the numbers closely turns the viral video concept a little bit on its head. Our popular notion is that something catches fire on the web and then "everyone" sees it. But the reality is that sharing is still rather inefficient, and it's more right in many respects to think that "no one has seen anything." :-)

Linkspank addresses this problem in a few ways: it lets you share more videos and links with your friends, without inconveniencing them (since they can manage their Inbox and email settings). You can also see which of your friends have already received a spank. So rather than being a part of the problem, be a part of the solution (haha): join the spank and spank this page to your friends, so they can read this nifty article... and catch up on the Evolution of Dance and the Laughing Baby.

Friday, May 2, 2008

facebook's iPhone app is OKAY

For the latest couple days my iPod Touch has been grafted onto my body, in my brain, forming a Voltron-like monster who constantly browses the web and does pretty much anything you can do on the iPod Touch.

You call that a knife?

The result will be an iPhone app that rivals the best ones out there. Stay tuned, and practicing tapping things to build your endurance.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Sharlene would like to be added as one of my friends!

I got a MySpace friend request from Sharlene.

I don't recall ever meeting her or talking to her in any way shape or form, but she is pretty cute!

Plus she has personality to back it up:

Ah, it's kind of fun. Since most of my friends don't do much on MySpace it's nice to meet a whore-bot every now and then. Maybe I'll let her catch a glimpse of my USB dongle...

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

The Hierarchy of Needs, and Entrepreneurship

The Hierarchy of Needs

This is pretty random, but I was sitting around today and I got a couple ideas about Maslow's hierarchy of needs:
  1. People often frame decisions to start a venture in terms of risk - the comfort of the entrepreneur with taking risks. The hierarchy of needs is an interesting alternative. When you are healthy, safe, loved, esteemed (and you feel this way), it's time to "self-actualize," which may be achieved through a venture.
  2. Some of the emotional or cognitive conflicts of pursuing a venture could boil down to where you are in the hierarchy. If your venture fails, are you "safe" or are you going to starve? Are you doing it for the esteem of others, or your own fulfillment?
This is maybe the first time I found the pyramid interesting. Anyway, just an idea. Here's an example of why it could be too facile:


"People with fragile high self-esteem compensate for their self-doubts by engaging in exaggerated tendencies to defend, protect and enhance their feelings of self-worth." Like what? Blogging?

Monday, April 28, 2008

everyone deserves an iPod Touch, including me

So many things about this picture amuse me

I got myself an iPod touch. First, I wanted one to test our budding Mobile Spank on it (because to date I've been doing my mobile browsing on a Nokia N95). Second, we're going to be giving away some iPod touches and iTunes gift certificates soon, and I realized that having and using the touch would allow me to take some videos of how fun it is and also make sure I personally understand the iTunes process. (Believe it or not I'm not currently an iTunes user; I get my kicks from Pandora.)

Which is all very exciting to me. About a billion new things are coming on Linkspank soon, and now I get to spank from yet another device. Bitchinnnnnnnn.

Plus, apparently I can use it as a phone too:

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Walden Pond, thoughts on the tipping point

I'm about halfway around walden pond, thinking about individuality and
the tipping point. If a business is characterized by tipping point
logic, it's anyone's guess as to how it will play out. Small changes
make too big a difference. The success of the business is based on
nonlinear factors. It's chaos math at play essentially. For linkspank
you can put it this way. People try linkspank and they basically like
it. Some people like it am awful lot. Many of those people haven't
recruited any friends though - despite the fact they like the site and
would be pleased to have friends active on it. Now if you had a
situation where each me those people brought one friend to the site,
the community would grow very very quickly and in fact it would be
about as good as it gets for a site like linkspank. And some
relatively small changes could make some spankers invite just one more
person (though it's hard to know what those changes are). So the
strategic imperative is to find those little differences. In light me
this you can see why luck is a huge factor for all such businesses
whether they "succeed" or "fail". Personally the luck factor doesn't
attract me. Chess is one of my favorite games because there is minimal
luck involved. But i am passionate about so much that linkspank stands
for - using the web to organize and share information, bring smiles to
people, play around and play a new kind of game, be more efficient,
discover cool new things - that it's perfect for me. Being at walden
is a nice reminder of individuality, which is so important to me.
Entrepreneurship requires it, not because you are "working for
yourself", but because you are by definition pursuing an opportunity
that the rest me the world has passed over- your business is an
embodiment of a difference of opinion with the majority. Ok, i'm back
at the front of the pond. May you have a good sunday and know when to
disagree with others. :-)

--
Sent from Gmail for mobile | mobile.google.com

Saturday, April 26, 2008

percentage gains



Our Revenue is up 1,000,000% haha :-)

Some people say that any decent web startup should be growing 25% per month in usage. I sort of agree. But you start puny and you're trying to get very big (even if not huge). So since when is this a linear game? One of the points of Tipping Point is that you shouldn't be thinking in terms of linear growth, but rather making the tweaks that could lead to the magic formula.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Mobile spank coming soon

Quite soon we'll have a mobile version of linkspank that you'll see
automatically whenever you navigate to the site on your phone. The
goal is to enable you to read your spanks while you are mailing and
browsing on the phone. Also, if you find a link you like on your phone
you'll be able to click through and spank it. It will be simple yet
awesome i believe, and a big step up in what's available even for
iPhone users. On the phone, it's "difficult" to copy a link to share
with someone. We are fixing this problem and helping the cause of
social procrastination by a billion. Let me know if you're interested
in being one me the first users.

--
Sent from Gmail for mobile | mobile.google.com

Code

Code

--
Sent from Gmail for mobile | mobile.google.com

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Publishing Features

We have some publishing features launching soon. I'm playing around with ways to publish your spanks in different ways. You'll hear more about it soon!

Today's experiment: publishing a particular spank on your site to look a bit like so:



Wednesday, April 16, 2008

On Being a Nomad

A couple days after declaring to my facebook friends that I was "home, taking a break from being a nomad," I saw this.



Boy is that true for me. I have been visiting cities for 5-10 days, working, spending time with friends, getting opinions and advice on Linkspank. I started to envision a life like that in 2001, shortly after getting my first cell phone, when I was living in Europe. Now I'm living the dream. As the article points out, it can be done without having a lot of money. But so many many things are more important than money... to me at least.

Monday, April 14, 2008

the very first video blog post ever.

What makes a good video blog?

I ask you, after admitting my ignorance. Click through the video to comment your wisdom and subscribe, and the world shall be enriched.



And now, some real art. Found at Diesel Cafe. I need to credit the artists but I don't know who they are.



Sunday, April 6, 2008

June Goal and Funding

I had a meeting today with a classmate from Chicago GSB and we went over the Linkspank pitch and discussed funding stuff. The pitch still needs some improvement but I'm happy with how it's coming along. The business model is laid out a bit more clearly too and some of the questions from the Investor Roundtable a few weeks ago helped me. Facebook makes about $5 of revenue per user per year based on advertisements. With its current activity, Linkspank would make about $1.50 per user per year. So you set the baseline for revenue that way and make arguments at growing the $1.50 to $5 and beyond, while keeping costs lower than a Facebook say.

His insights were different insights though, and they were quite helpful. He strengthened my resolve to gun for 10,000 spankers ASAP (June is the goal). So returning from Chicago I'm quite refreshed to prosecute the many prongs of this growth plan!

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

a rounded element.

Those roundy buttons are a small new experiment

This is a pretty microscopic issue, but it's a little piece of shared thinking lovingly from me to you.

In setting up the UI of linkspank, I wanted something that was clear and non-trendy. To this end there has been little in the way of rounded elements, which are cute but maybe a bit cutesy too.

Now though I'm trying to highlight that the spank and more buttons are buttons, so we're playing with the rounded corners. The size and redness of them appears to be appropriate for the inbox, but a bit overwhelming perhaps on the browsing pages where there are lots of spanks. Generally they are helpful for the newbies, a bit outspoken for the experts.

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Smack Talk, Big Talk

I've scheduled some smack talk to appear on the blog soon. Some of it will be directed against others, as proper smack talk is.


You? If you're our competitor, probably. More coming Soon

First, though, I will engage in some Big Talk.

Our Next Goal: 10,000 Spankers by June.

Daunting and difficult. We currently have 2,000 spankers. So we are looking to multiply by 5 or so, in three months.

Can we do it?

Your momma can sure do it.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

The Ad Model I Want: More like Gmail, Less like AdSense

Linkspank has no ads on the site, but if and when we ever put any on there, this is what I want.

NOT: Traditional AdSense style
  • Ads based on content of entire page
  • Ads driven heavily by words in URL and page title
  • Ads load pretty much only on page load

WHAT I WANT: Ads behaving like Gmail Ads
  • Ads load specific to a portion of a page (e.g., a Gmail message)
  • New ads load when a new page loads (e.g., a Gmail message)
  • Ads don't care so much about the URL or header.
This would be useful in particular for the Linkspank Inbox, where you pop up messages of interest to you. If you have tips on the subject, let me know! :-)

Sunday, March 23, 2008

We have a really awesome feature coming.

An update of the linkspank system is upcoming soon. There are some cosmetic changes and some boring or moderately interesting features.

I can't wait for our "new feature" to be fully operational

But also coming down the pike is a really cool, really super new feature. It doesn't really have any precedent so we'll have to see if the Procrasti-Nation of Spankers digs it or not (and it may take some tweaking). But I can't wait to try it out!

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Top Ten Reasons to Go to the Spank Party on Thursday


10. It’s the best thing going on that night in the Boston area. Editor’s pick on Going.com and Yelp.com.

9. Great support for Linkspank.

8. This is a one time deal.

7. Drink tickets.

6. Schwag. Some real nice freebies.

5. Sweet location.

4. There are spank girls.

3. There is a Spanking booth.

2. You can play a wii on a projector screen.

1. You can take the Wii home.

For all the full benefits, rsvp at www.linkspank.com/party

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Data and Reflections on the last monthly newsletter

Recently I listed Constant Contact as a top tool for entrepreneurs. Last week I used it to send February's edition of The Monthly Spank: Surf your Way to Hawaii by Skilled Procrastination (where, you'll see on the link, it's also now archived).



In this post I'll share some of my first experience and divulge data specific to Linkspank with a boldness that pretty much no one else in the Universe has.

Here's how the newsletter did:

That is, our newsletter was opened by about a sixth of recipients, and about a sixth of them clicked on something in the newsletter; so our open rate was 16% and our CTR (click through rate) was 18%. Anecdotally someone told me that an open rate of 16% was pretty good /average, and there are some old numbers claiming that 8% is an average CTR, which would make our CTR pretty good. Of course, we shouldn't be TOO impressed by that, because our Monthly Spank goes to registered spankers - people who have specifically opted in to Linkspank. So really I think we should be shooting for a much higher open rate and CTR rate.

Or should we? Consider the call to action of the email: Surf your Way to Hawaii by Skilled Procrastination. As indicated by this title, the primary message of the newsletter was about the contest. Realistically, the percentage of spankers who are going to consider gunning for Hawaii will be easily less than 50%, almost certainly less than 30%. So our open rate of 16% maybe is more accurately considered an open rate of 50% or so within our target segment (the one third of spankers who might consider gunning for Hawaii), which would be an insanely high open rate.

The CTR is less ambiguous. People have opened the email because they have some basic interest in the subject. From there, the question is whether we entice them to click. When you put it that way, I feel that the CTR is the main area for improvement in this case: surely we can get more than 1 in 5 who open the email to at least click on something! ...when, in fact, the Monthly Spank was asking much more of them - namely, to complete the checklist, spank on the email, and so on.

So the CTR was the main failure. From here, I dive into more speculative terrain. I think we could have improved in the following ways:

Guide the experience more. There were a lot of links in the Monthly Spank, while the call to action was specific and guided. Essentially we were making it easy for people to get lost. Only 27% of those clicking through "started" with the link we gave them to start with - the Orientation Page. Which invites the question, Why did we even bother providing the other links? We probably shouldn't have.
Rather than providing three steps here, next time I'll try providing one link,
which guides the experience from there


Of course, this takes guts-- sending an email with basically one link. But I think the more you think about it, the more you will agree that it's the right way to go. When people right emails with a bunch of links, I think they are either being chicken about the call to action, or maybe there is no call to action and they are just being informational (in which case a newspaper-like profusion of links makes sense). (I would question whether anyone using Constant Contact is really ever doing the latter goal but whatever.)

People are whipping through their inbox. They give any newsletter they open a brief moment, usually with the intention *not* to click anything but just to give it a glimpse. Hence you want a clear, obvious, seductive link to lead them away from their inbox, into a magical experience where you induce them to get spanky.

In retrospect, the call to action was mixed, which couldn't have helped the cause. Was the call to action really "spread the word about Linkspank" or was it "win the contest"? Surely the ideas are related, but we needed some better Pyramid Principle thinking here with an idea at the top. To make things worse, the call to action that was first in the list (completing orientation / spreading the word) was opposite that of the title (win the contest).

Were I to do it again, I would have focused on winning the contest. I would have cut the intro section, and shaped it as supporting text that explained that your procrastination, Hawaii-winning efforts not only further your sunbathing chances, but also support the startup, enrich the community, and spread the word to friends who will forever be in your debt and love you.

We'll see if we get those numbers up in future months!! As for you - winning a Hawaii trip all starts at the Orientation Page, which will educate you and win you points. :-)

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Top 10 Tools for Entrepreneurs

Based on my Linkspank and prior experience, these are my top 10 tools that I would recommend to another entrepreneur without knowing anything about his or her business.

Here’s the countdown:

Tool #10: An all-in-one printer. Mine is an HP. The need for this is a vestige of the old fashioned world. But hey, you need to print stuff, fax stuff, and SCAN stuff. Scanning stuff is awesome. And it’s a great substitute for faxing things, especially if you don’t have a land line, because who needs that caveman stuff. Scan it, email it, and then you have a record as well.

Tool #9: An iPhone, Nokia N95, or Blackberry. They are not equal, but the tradeoffs among them are tough to settle depending on your needs. The ability to capture video with a N95 is pretty awesome. And taking pictures (and uploading them to Flickr or wherever!) tends to come in handy for guerrilla marketing, and solves the problem of owning a camera but never having it on hand. But my N95 randomly turns off, sometimes when I’m receiving a call. File that under the Bad Feature category. iPhones don’t have that feature. Using an iPhone puts you in a constant state of arousal, which is a I guess a plus and a minus. All three are needed because you need to be plugged in to the Matrix. People cite the addiction factor: have one and you can’t escape the internets. But I think if you have a little control it can be the opposite: having these puppies can enable you to stay away from your computer longer, because you can check in without booting up.

Tool #8: Google Docs. This online document and spreadsheet system is far from perfect. But Word increasingly blows chunks. Meanwhile, Google docs is pretty awesome when it comes to collaboration. You can edit the same doc simultaneously with someone else. And collaboration is really the essence of existence. All the fancy features of Word? You don’t need them, because you aren’t publishing anything with this tool (other tools for that on the way).

Tool #7: Constant Contact. I just signed up for this service yesterday so maybe I'm overly pumped about it. It’s so clearly the way to go if you have customers or people that you would like to email on any regular basis. It’s a reliable way of formatting sending HTML formatted messages, managing contact lists, being generally considered reputable by humans and spam filters, endearing yourself to readers with a quick unsubscribe option, and tracking the effectiveness of your communications.

Tool #6: Photoshop. This product is absurdly expensive, and absurdly difficult to learn. But I can’t even begin to fathom how anyone would get by without it. You should have Photoshop if any of the following are true: you have a logo; you have a website; you publish documents; you have schwag. Sure, you could have someone else take care of this stuff for you. But as CEO you are probably Head Marketer and these functions can be pretty core to it.

Tool #5. Your Blog. I don’t really like any of the blog services a TON, but Blogger has suited me ok. (Though composing and adding photos in here makes me want to kill myself.) Unless you have opened a business as an independent intelligence operative, you need a blog. Everyone’s holdup is wondering whether it’s really worth the effort. It is true that a LOT of people still don’t really know what a blog is, even when they visit one. (This is a blog by the way.) But here are a couple reasons why you must have one. First, marketing these days is complicated, and all the best ways of marketing are basically untrackable. You have to give up on being able to know exactly what the payoff is for all your actions. Instead, you figure out your strategy and go with the things that are in strategic alignment with it. So, if rapport with literate humans plays a role in your strategy, you write a blog. Second, writing shapes up our thinking, and it’s nice to have a clue about what we’re thinking.

Tool #4. Social Networks. Blah blah everyone talks about this. Some of the blog thinking applies here: it’s tough to measure the efficacy of all the things we do. But you should be on these puppies. Which ones depends on your business. I’ve used LinkedIn for job postings with some success. Probably every entrepreneur ever should be on MySpace and facebook. But it depends a bit on your business. E.g., if you’re a yoga teacher, you should be on Zaadz. Facebook is quite relevant to our user base and that’s why we have the best facebook app ever, enabling to join the Spank through facebook, login through facebook, and spank your facebook friends. Linkspank was recently written up as a way to be a part of the buzz.

Tool #3. Gmail. Email is pretty important, you know? Linkspank is an email-related business, so I have made it my business to use a variety of email solutions, including webmail, Outlook, Thunderbird, most of the stuff you know. It is no joke that Gmail is *head and shoulders* above the rest. Just the facts. It’s much much much faster, for one thing. After using Gmail, when I log into the other stuff I’m practically tearing my face off. And it wins on features, such as group chat (although that didn’t work for me today) and sending emails in the name of other email addresses, forwarding and on and on and on.

Tool #2. Air card. This is a device that you plug into your laptop, that enables you to be connected to the Internet wherever you get cell phone service. Really it's not a device so much as the service you get from your cell provider. Example: AT&T's. Ok, this one definitely does not apply to all entrepreneurs. But I refuse to bump it up or off the list. It is too sweet. Even with the advent of the iPhone, nothing beats actually being able to get on the computer and get on the Internet, basically whereever you are, and be able to be productive. The wifi network gets too slow somewhere or goes down: you switch to your air card. At the airport, you are productive at the terminal, and actually sending emails on the plane before the folks make you unplug. You are driving and get a phone call: there is a problem. You pull over to the side of the road and get online. Welcome to the world of entrepreneur ninjas and commandos. You have numchucks on your belt, submachine gun cartridges strapped across your chest, and an air card in your computer. One caveat: while these tend to offer slow but acceptible broadband in major metropolitan areas, the connection speed in more rural areas is unacceptible and you will be the slowest ninja ever.

Tool #1: The Human Ear. Ok, maybe this is super cheesy. But there is a pattern and a paradox in this list of tools and it all is summarized by my choice for the number one tool: the strangely shaped fleshy listening devices attached to your head. Here’s the pattern: basically every tool I’ve named here is a communication tool. Maybe everything boils down to communication. As a person, you process information; inside your company, you all collaborate; and on the outside, your company engages the world, markets to it, and learns from it. The trick is that all these tools are useless unless you are actually listening and processing. They just facilitate getting great information to your brain, but if your brain is encased in protective stone there is no point. Conversely, an inquisitive, exploratory attitude – that involves speaking with the primary purpose of getting other people to talk – can get you everywhere. Most specifically, to an ever-improving understanding of your customer. I’m always working on this and our recent beer & laptop event was an example that I would like to continue, to the extent that I can afford to buy other people beer instead of myself.

I mentioned a paradox, as well as a pattern. I think the paradox is that entrepreneurship, in distinction with other ways of spending your time professionally, is different most in that you have to be brave and willing to act. All these tools are about listening, learning, and thinking. If these tools had personalities, they would be cautious creatures, probably not entrepreneurs. So in that case, maybe your number one tool is your Fist. Nothing cheesy about a Fist.

And now, some runners-up for the list:

Pidgin – IM is a great communication tool, and Pidgin helps you chat with anyone without spending 20 minutes logging into everything or burdening your computer. Downsides: doesn’t stay connected perfectly, it’s ugly, and no group chat.

Jott – this thing transcribes your phone messages and sends text to you and other people. “note to self” kind of stuff. Makes you feel important. Huge drawback: transcription quality is not quite there.

Twitter – fits in the blog and social network category, and is useful for similar reasons.

Jawbone – you want to be able to have meetings on the phone, even if your changing your baby’s diaper or driving. This is part of why you want to be an entrepreneur, right? Jawbone helps you do that, by cancelling noise and giving you both hands free for unarmed combat. Downside: doesn’t work with my N95.

Firefox – for PC users, using Internet Explorer is like smoking – WHY???? with the distinction that using Explorer doesn’t even make you seem cool. The current version of IE takes about 10 second to load a tab. What exactly is happening during that time? I wonder this, for a good ten seconds, every time I open Internet Exporer or a new tab therein.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Launch will probably happen in next 24 hrs.

So get our your evangelism hat.
And your Hawaiian shirt.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Beers and the User Experience

This week we hosted an event where we gave people free beer to bring their laptops and Join the Spank. The objective was to test the user interface and user experience of joining the spank and trying out the site.

We had 6 or 8 people, which was about a perfect number. The event was hugely useful and easily worth the $70 bar tab. There were many comments and little discoveries. Here's a sample of some of the more interesting ones:
  • Some of the Ajax (fancy technology) was prevented a couple people from joining, so a lower-tech (and faster, actually) process for Joining is coming soon.
  • Multiple people, once they logged in, ignored the orientation page and went straight to "Start a Spank." Not what I expected but oh so reasonable in retrospect.
  • After spanking or adding a link people wanted to see their Wall. Once you get used to spanking you don't look much at your own Wall (you know what's there!) but it's of primary interest initially.
All in all, lots of good improvements in the process for our upcoming launch. I shudder to think how many people have tried and failed Joining due to the first part above! Though the positive flip side is that our growth rate should increase.

It also goes to show that this method of learning gives different results from the pipeline of feedback from friends and users (though that pipeline is quite important).

Saturday, February 16, 2008

More on the Pitch: Ad Revenue Model

An interesting conversation during Friday’s pitch was around the business model.

Now, I think if you’re a potential investor in Linkspank and you’re going to choose to focus on any one part of the business to discuss and you choose the revenue model, it’s probably a sign that you are not comfortable with really discussing the business. Because Linkspank is the kind of beast that requires growth in users to make any money at all; and conversely, if you can achieve this growth than you ARE going to be able to make money.

But revenue is still important :-), and like I said I thought it was an interesting conversation. It’s a chance for me to try to clarify my thinking, improve it with your feedback, and also if you don’t know any of this stuff and you’re vaguely in the business than heads up.

I told them that Linkspank had some exotic opportunities for business models, but that we would start simple and turn on contextual advertising once we hit one million users.

“Contextual advertising” (currently limited essentially to text advertising) is advertising that is placed on the page and chosen according to what the page is about, as determined by a scan of the text on the page. You get a Linkspank about the Nicks, and next to it are advertisements for Nicks jerseys, Nicks videos, Nicks tickets.

This kind of advertising makes such a small amount of money that you need to be serving massive traffic for it to get you anywhere, but it has an advantages. First, you can turn it on about as simply as flicking a switch. Google and other services are the ones actually providing the advertisements. There is no need to sell advertisements, find advertisers, any of that crap. This kind of advertising is (basically) what has made MySpace and facebook businesses that rake in lots of cash.

Here’s the model I showed for how linkspank would make its money:

So, when we have 1 million users, we make $33 million in revenue per year. Here’s how the calculation goes: you have so many users, and the view so many pages, and they click on one or more of the ads a certain (very small) percentage of the time, and you make so much money per click, and you add it all up.

They found the number too high and we took it from there. The ads per page is not really disputable – if you’re going to put 6 ads per page than ok then! The CTR (click through rate) per ad is a little more disputable. If your ads look cool like facebook’s, and not ugly like generic AdSense ads, maybe your CTR will increase a little. Or it might for other reasons. But certainly I have seen real world examples where the CTR is at least this low. I think it’s worth considering a case in which the CTR is 0.1%. (That would cut the $30M to $10M).

The page views per day per user is the key number. Well, sort of. The REALLY key number is the top figure, the number of users. As I contend, the key question for this business is the growth. But this second line is key. It currently asserts that on AVERAGE every spanker will view 150 pages per month, which is a lot.

The second line really involves forming an opinion about how growing size will affect the stickiness of the site and user activity. Users are not currently viewing 150 pages per month; they are viewing more like 10 to 17, depending on how you count.

So why would the figure multiply by 10 when the site grows? It wouldn’t necessarily. It depends basically on whether your site actually does something, or people sign up for it and it’s crap. Let’s contrast LinkedIn and facebook (speculatively, not like I have inside numbers). Both are supposed to become richer and more valuable for you the bigger they get, the more potential connections you have and people you can learn about or whatever. Most users will confirm for you the following reality: facebook strongly benefits from having all your friends on there and it makes it much easier to stick around longer. In contast, LinkedIn for most people is a site that they visit occasionally to approve someone’s connection request and then they pop out. Every now and then someone will spruce up their profile. But they don’t seem to be doing much more than they were when the network was younger. I don’t quite think LinkedIn is crap, but hey these are the (anecdotal) facts on this particular issue.

So far all our data indicates that Linkspank will go the way of faceook on this issue and not the way of LinkedIn. The fundamental logic of what spanking is also supports the claim. Will this really bring us up to 5 page views per user per day? I’m not sure that anyone can answer that question definitively. I’m willing to consider a lower forecast. It still shapes up to a very profitable business – IF you get the growth… which once again is the real question.

That really just scrapes the surface of the conversation, but it's enough for Saturday morning. :-)

Friday, February 15, 2008

Results of Pitch at Deloitte Tech Venture Center

Bananas are the hottest thing, you should invest

I took my hacking, raspy self to Waltham today and pitched at an "investor roundtable" hosted by Deloitte. Launchpad and Atlas were there, and some other folks. DFJ and Spark were supposed to be there but I don't believe they were.

Summary: they conceded that they weren't part of the target market. I also noticed that they weren't too well acquainted with the market space. I am routinely baffled by how little people understand online advertising. Meanwhile, the guy who thought he knew the space suggested (inadvertantly) that I instead build another delicious - which is a deeply troubling suggestion on a variety of levels.

Anyway, to resume the summary: I think they weren't 100% understanding what Linkspank is. And how can you invest in something you don't understand, right? Agreed. They suggested that I go look for a younger angel investor, which I think is a good call. (The investment I'm looking for is $200-500k, depending on timing and other factors, so it's borderline between angel and group of angels or institutional.)

Internet Site = Must Do Demo

The thing I puzzled over most was whether to include a demo in the pitch. It's the Google way of doing things and I was always sold on that. But I was dissuaded from the idea over the last week, by the fact that my practice pitch listeners didn't want to hear the pitch.

In retrospect, I think it's absolutely true - none of these guys want to see a demo. But it's laziness on their part not to want to see one, and it should be my job to force them to see it. Considering investing in a consumer Internet business without seeing the site in action is like considering investing in an ice cream shop without tasting the ice cream. If you wanna do it, go ahead, but seriously.

So, I think in the future I will insist on a demo, even if this means requiring a presentation time of 30 min (without questions). I know that's longer than the norm, but it's fine because I don't want to do business with anyone who won't take a look at the product.

The need for a demo was underscored by the fact that Linkspank's on-paper stats are astonishing, and they still had trouble winning the group over. With no PR, we've grown to 1300+ users. 67% are active in a 2 month period, with 8+ invitations to join the spank sent out per user. The average session on the site in December was 3.7 hours. The business makes sense on paper. There's not more much I could have told them statistically to convince them without having already had a thriving business :-).

Next Steps

The only part of the outcome I disliked was the idea that no one on the East Coast would have the vision to invest in this idea. I was hoping to get outside the box a little by putting Linkspank here instead of there. But (so the story goes), while there are plenty of techie and visionary people here in Cambridge, they aren't angel investors but rather poor kids.

At any rate, next steps are to look a little more globally, and reach out to angel types and get their advice. It will be fun, because I love talking about the business and I'll get some more meaningful interaction with cool people. And I'll insist on the demo :-).

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

this blog just got way more micro (I'm talking about Twitter)

I just checked out the Social Media Breakfast. Was cool, thanks Bryan.

The thing was basically a huge Twitter lovefest. It helped me to think a little deeper about the service.


1. Often I want to blog here, but my thought is "too small" for a blog post, or maybe a bit off topic. Reason to try Twitter.

2. Facebook status updates are fun, and I have previously been of the opinion that they killed the need for twitter. But now I'm understanding that the whole game of twitter is VOLUME.

You COULD do a high volume of status updates in facebook, but that's not really quite what it's for and your friends are likely to get bummed. Twitter is designed more to be high volume.

Actually this scenario is similar to Linkspank - you can post a link on facebook, but you can't do it in high VOLUME efficiently (i.e. without spamming your friends). Enter Linkspank, and your world is awesome - more content, bigger brain, bigger laughs.

Anyway, I'm going to try the twitter things for people who for some reason think it's interesting to follow the individual firings of my synapses. That place will be

twitter.com/bitchell

I'll still blog here, of course - when it's more than just a snippet.

You can see that I used my (sort of) real name rather than "linkspank" as my twitter handle. The reason: twitter is not about companies, but rather people. A huge portion of what I do is "Inside Linkspank" type stuff. But there will be & has to be other junk in there too, because when you go high volume the line gets blurry between this & that. Some people raised an eyebrow at the user name "bitchell." I raise an eyebrow back at them. I'm like hey, What do you expect from a person who names a site Linkspank? ;-)

Friday, February 8, 2008

Pitch: Improving the 10/20/30 Rule

I'm working on Linkspank's pitch a bit as I mentioned. So far this is basically consisting of having conversations with some of my brilliant friends and colleagues about it.

One advisor checked with me that I would be following Guy Kawasaki's 10/20/30 rule. And I was like, "Of course!" And I do think about that rule. But I'm a contrarian guy and when I hear the words "of course" (even from my own mouth) I start to examine them. So after I got off IM, I was sitting at my computer with a raised Vulcan eyebrow. "Of course?"

Could the 10/20/30 rule be improved? Of course. :-) The improved version is the 0/10/20/30/1000 rule. How catchy is that? It's Guy's rule, plus a 0 rule at the beginning and a 1,000 rule at the end.

0: The ideal number of slides that you actually get through in your presentation. This is not a trick - you bring your presentation to use it. But the best presentations are stories, and the best stories hook the listeners immediately and have them so mesmerized by what they're hearing - sitting on the edges of their seats, eyes boggling, mouth agape, drooling - that the use of slides would actually be jarring and disrupt the magic spell that is occurring. What will you possibly ever remember from this little blog post? Maybe the Vulcan "of course" eyebrow, maybe the number zero, but at any rate the elements of a story.

The other rule to append:

1,000: the whole picture is worth thing. So far, one of the most effective parts of my attempts to explain Linkspank to an uninitiated person has been this picture:


Spankmaster

Depending on what you watch on TV, this picture is just a guy, or it's a picture rich with associations and meaning (and usually immediately triggers a smile or laugh). This picture reduces the time that it takes me to explain my target market by about 30 seconds, which is a lot of time.

Summing Up

If you happen to be on my wavelength, you may have thought that the 1,000 rule boils down to the 0 rule, since good pictures boil down to telling a story. I think actually that's true for the 10/20/30 in general: it's about telling a story. The 10/20/30 parts of it are pointers for keeping the attention and understanding of your listeners.

Of course.